Effect of climato-environmental parameters on chlorophyll a concentration in the lower Ganga basin, India / Efecto de los parámetros climáticos ambientales sobre la concentración de clorofila a en la cuenca baja del Ganges, India

Introduction: Chlorophyll a concentration proxies the phytoplankton biomass which directly involves in signifying the production functions of aquatic ecosystem. Thus, it is imperative to understand their spatio-temporal kinetics in lotic environment with reference to regional climatic variabilities in the tropical inland waters. Objective: In-situ studies were conducted to examine the changes in phytoplankton biomass in lower Ganga basin as influenced by various environmental parameters under regional climatic variability during 2014-2016. Methods: Firstly, the most key influential environmental parameters on riverine Chl-a concentration were determined. Then the direct cascading effect of changing climatic variables on key environmental parameters were derived through modeling and quantified probable changes in mean Chl-a concentration in the lower stretch of river. Results: Only five environmental parameters namely water temperature, total dissolved solid, salinity, total alkalinity and pH were key factors influencing Chl-a (Multiple R2: 0.638, P < 0.05). Present estimates indicate that if the present rate of regional climatic variability over the last 3 decades (mean air temperature + 0.24 °C, total annual rainfall -196.3 mm) remain consistent over the next three decades (2015-2045), an increase in mean Chl-a by + 170 µgL-1 may likely be expected grossly reaching about 475.94 µg L-1 by the year 2045 or more. Conclusions: The present study is first such comprehending a gross hint towards the probable ecosystem response with an alternative model based methodology in data-deficient situations. Subsequently, the output would also be of great benefit for increase water governance and developing strategy protocol for sustainable water management for greater ecosystem services.

Introducción: La concentración de clorofila a representa la biomasa de fitoplancton la cual influye directamente en las funciones de producción de los ecosistemas acuáticos. Por lo tanto, es imperativo comprender su cinética espacio-temporal en el ambiente lótico con respecto a las variabilidades climáticas regionales en las aguas continentales tropicales. Objetivo: Se realizaron estudios in situ para examinar la influencia de varios parámetros ambientales en la biomasa del fitoplancton en la cuenca baja del Ganges durante 2014-2016. Métodos: En primer lugar, se determinaron los parámetros ambientales más influyentes en la concentración de Chl-a fluvial. Luego, el efecto directo en cascada de las variables climáticas sobre los parámetros ambientales clave, mediante el modelado y los cambios en la concentración media de Chl-a en el tramo inferior del río. Resultados: Solo cinco parámetros ambientales, entre ellos, temperatura del agua, sólidos disueltos totales, salinidad, alcalinidad total y pH, fueron factores clave que influyeron en la Chl-a (R2 múltiple: 0.638, P < 0.05). Las estimaciones actuales indican que si la tasa actual de variabilidad climática regional durante las últimas 3 décadas (temperatura media del aire + 0.24 °C, precipitación total anual -196.3 mm) permanece constante durante las próximas tres décadas (2015-2045), se presente un aumento en el promedio de la Chl-a en +170 µgL-1 y alcance aproximadamente 475.94 µgL-1 para el 2045 o más. Conclusiones: Este estudio presenta una metodología basada en modelos alternativos en situaciones de escasez de datos, la información generada también podría contribuir a mejorar la gobernanza del agua y a desarrollar un protocolo para la gestión sostenible del agua y de esta manera mejorar los servicios ecosistémicos.

Climato-environmental influence on breeding phenology of native catfishes in River Ganga and modeling species response to climatic variability for their conservation.

The main objectives of the present study were to quantify the environmental, especially temperature and rainfall, effects on breeding phenology of selected catfish species and to predict changes in breeding phenology of the selected species in relation to climatic variability for the Ganga River Basin. The study showed that changes in rainfall pattern may have the most profound effect on gonad maturation and breeding of Mystus tengara and Mystus cavasius followed by the effect of increased water temperature due to rising air temperature. Indication of region-specific adaptation was noticed in reproductive phenology of Eutropiichthys vacha based on local trends of warming climate. The other habitat parameters, such as dissolved oxygen, alkalinity, nitrate, and phosphate, were correlated with gonad maturity and spawning. Climatic variability may bring region-specific changes in breeding phenology of fish species in the Ganga River. Under a warming climate, changes in precipitation pattern manifested into riverine flow pulse may be the key driver in dictating breeding phenology. Our study indicates E. vacha as a climate sensitive species that may be selected as a target species for climate change impact studies.

Benchmarking pre-spawning fitness, climate preferendum of some catfishes from river Ganga and its proposed utility in climate research.

The concept of threshold condition factor (Fulton), beyond which more than 50% of the female fish population may attain readiness for spawning coined as pre-spawning fitness (K spawn50), has been proposed in the present article and has been estimated by applying the non-parametric Kaplan-Meier method for fitting survival function. A binary coding strategy of gonadal maturity stages was used to classify whether a female fish is "ready to spawn" or not. The proposed K spawn50 has been generated for female Mystus tengara (1.13-1.21 units), M. cavasius (0.846-0.945 units), and Eutropiichthys vacha (0.716-0.799 units). Information on the range of egg parameters (fecundity, egg weight, egg diameter) expected at the pre-spawning stage was also generated. Additional information on species-specific thermal and precipitation window (climate preferendum) within which K spawn50 is attained was also generated through the LOESS smoothing technique. Water temperatures between 31 and 36 °C (M. tengara), 30 and 32 °C (M. cavasius), and 29.5 and 31 °C (E. vacha) and monthly rainfall between 200 and 325 mm (M. tengara), > 250 mm (M. cavasius), and around 50 mm and between 350 and 850 mm (E. vacha) were found to be optimum for attainment of K spawn50. The importance of parameterization and benchmarking of K spawn50 in addition to other conventional reproductive biology parameters has been discussed in the present article. The purposes of the present study were fulfilled by generating baseline information and similar information may be generated for other species replicating the innovative methodology used in this study.